Geospatial suitability of cacao in Amazonas (Peru): An ensemble predictive modeling approach (BIOMOD2) integrating multisource data, territorial management, and plant health

Abstract

Identifying climatically suitable areas for cacao cultivation (Theobroma cacao L.) is essential to guide sustainable intensification, territorial planning, and compliance with emerging environmental standards in tropical regions. This study assessed the current climatic suitability of cacao in the Amazonas department (northwestern Peru) using an ensemble modeling approach implemented in biomod2, integrating bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic predictors with spatial biophysical exclusion criteria, legal conservation constraints, regulatory eligibility associated with the European Union Deforestation-Free Products Regulation (EUDR), and local phytosanitary evidence. A total of 403 quality-controlled presence records were used to calibrate multiple machine-learning algorithms under cross-validation, retaining only those with high predictive performance (AUC>0.9; TSS>0.7). Decision tree–based models, particularly Random Forest and XGBoost, showed the best individual performance, while the consensus model exhibited greater spatial stability and overall accuracy. Results indicate that approximately 14.8% of the regional territory presents high climatic suitability under current conditions, concentrated in inter-Andean valleys and low- to mid-elevation zones, with thermal seasonality identified as the main environmental predictor. However, the incorporation of territorial and regulatory constraints substantially reduced the effectively available area, especially under the EUDR scenario, demonstrating that cacao expansion potential is strongly conditioned by conservation and regulatory frameworks. High-priority degraded areas emerged as focal opportunities for productive restoration through agroforestry systems. Phytosanitary validation (2021–2024) revealed high spatial concordance between areas of greatest climatic suitability and the prevalence and incidence of major cacao pathogens and pests, particularly Moniliophthora roreri and M. perniciosa, confirming that optimal climatic niches for cultivation also favor biotic pressure. Overall, this study provides an integrative framework combining climatic modeling, territorial management, and phytosanitary risk, delivering robust scientific inputs to inform public policy, land-use planning, and sustainable cacao production strategies in the Amazon.