Examinando por Autor "Cotrina Sanchez, Alexander"

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Integrating agroecological suitability of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) with biodiversity and land-use constraints in Peru
(Elsevier Ltd., 2026-01-29) Cotrina Sanchez, Alexander; Guzman Valque, Betty Karina; Barboza, Elgar; Oliva, Manuel; Huaman Pilco, Angel Fernando; Rojas Briceño, Nilton B.
CONTEXT: Cacao cultivation is vital for rural economies in Peru, but its expansion often overlaps with sensitive ecosystems, raising concerns for biodiversity conservation. Despite international commitments to deforestation-free supply chains, integrated analyses combining agroecological suitability with land-use constraints remain scarce in Peru. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to identify suitable areas for cacao cultivation under multiple exclusion scenarios, evaluate conflicts with biodiversity and conservation areas, and quantify degraded lands that could provide opportunities for agroforestry-based restoration. METHODS: Cacao suitability was modelled with an ensemble of nine machine-learning algorithms using bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors. Outputs were filtered to exclude biophysical barriers and overlaid with national-scale layers of species richness, protected areas, forest cover, and degraded lands through GIS-based spatial analysis to evaluate exclusion scenarios and trade-offs. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The ensemble achieved high predictive power, with Random Forest (AUC = 0.997) and XGBoost (AUC = 0.972) performing best. Highly suitable areas were concentrated in the Andean-Amazon transition, especially in San Martín, Cusco, Huánuco, and Junín departments, where they overlapped with biodiversity hotspots and legally protected areas. Degraded yet suitable lands highlighted opportunities to expand cacao through agroforestry systems, reducing forest pressure and enhancing ecological restoration. SIGNIFICANCE: By integrating suitability modelling with national-scale geospatial layers, this study delivers a framework linking crop suitability with land-use constraints. The findings support national-scale planning while remaining adaptable to local contexts. They also align with international policy frameworks such as the European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), promoting sustainable cacao production, biodiversity conservation, and long-term rural development in Peru.
Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of Neltuma pallida in the dry forest of northern Peru under climate change scenarios to 2100
(John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2024-08-27) Barboza Castillo, Elgar; Bravo Morales, Nino; Cotrina Sanchez, Alexander; Salazar Coronel, Wilian; Gálvez Paucar, David; Gonzales, Jhony; Saravia Navarro, David; Valqui Valqui, Lamberto; Cárdenas Rengifo, Gloria Patricia; Ocaña Reyes, Jimmy Alcides; Cruz Luis, Juancarlos; Arbizu Berrocal, Carlos Irvin
The development of anthropic activities and climate change effects impact worldwide species' ecosystems and habitats. Habitats' adequate prediction can be an important tool to assess current and future trends. In addition, it allows strategies development for their conservation. The Neltuma pallida of the forest region in northern Peru, although very significant, has experienced a decline in recent years. The objective of this research is to evaluate the current and future distribution and conservation status of N. pallida in the Peruvian dry forest under climate change (Location: Republic of Peru). A total of 132 forest presence records and 10 variables (bioclimatic, topographic, and soil) were processed and selected to obtain the current and future distribution for 2100, using Google Earth Engine (GEE), RStudio, and MaxEnt. The area under the curve values fell within the range of 0.93–0.95, demonstrating a strong predictive capability for both present and future potential habitats. The findings indicated that the likely range of habitats for N. pallida was shaped by factors such as the average temperature of wettest quarter, maximum temperature of warmest month, elevation, rainfall, and precipitation of driest month. The main suitable areas were in the central regions of the geographical departments of Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque, as well as in the northern part of La Libertad. It is critical to determine the habitat suitability of plant species for conservation managers since this information stimulates the development of policies that favor sustainable use programs. In addition, these results can contribute significantly to identify new areas for designing strategies for populations conserving and recovering with an ecological restoration approach.