Examinando por Materia "MaxEnt"

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Habitat Suitability Distribution of Genus Gynoxys Cass. (Asteraceae): An Approach to Conservation and Ecological Restoration of the Andean Flora in Peru.
(MDPI, Basel, Switzerland., 2025-03-10) Coronel Castro, Elver; Meza Mori, Gerson; Pariente Mondragon, Eli; Haro, Nixon; Oliva Cruz, Manuel; Barboza , Elgar; Amasifuen Guerra, Carlos A.; Revilla Pantigoso, Italo; Tariq , Aqil; Guzman Valqui, Betty Karina
The study used species distribution models (MaxEnt) to analyze the ecological suitability of the genus Gynoxys in Peru. Bioclimatic, edaphic and topographic variables were integrated to predict areas with high development potential. Potential distribution maps were generated, and model validation showed outstanding performance (AUC > 0.9). The results indicated that variables such as minimum temperature in the warmest season and soil moisture are determinants in the distribution of the Discoide, Gynoxys and Praegynoxys clades. It is concluded that the conservation of the genus requires protection strategies to ensure the sustainability of these montane ecosystems.
Modeling the current and future habitat suitability of Neltuma pallida in the dry forest of northern Peru under climate change scenarios to 2100
(John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2024-08-27) Barboza Castillo, Elgar; Bravo Morales, Nino; Cotrina Sanchez, Alexander; Salazar Coronel, Wilian; Gálvez Paucar, David; Gonzales, Jhony; Saravia Navarro, David; Valqui Valqui, Lamberto; Cárdenas Rengifo, Gloria Patricia; Ocaña Reyes, Jimmy Alcides; Cruz Luis, Juancarlos; Arbizu Berrocal, Carlos Irvin
The development of anthropic activities and climate change effects impact worldwide species' ecosystems and habitats. Habitats' adequate prediction can be an important tool to assess current and future trends. In addition, it allows strategies development for their conservation. The Neltuma pallida of the forest region in northern Peru, although very significant, has experienced a decline in recent years. The objective of this research is to evaluate the current and future distribution and conservation status of N. pallida in the Peruvian dry forest under climate change (Location: Republic of Peru). A total of 132 forest presence records and 10 variables (bioclimatic, topographic, and soil) were processed and selected to obtain the current and future distribution for 2100, using Google Earth Engine (GEE), RStudio, and MaxEnt. The area under the curve values fell within the range of 0.93–0.95, demonstrating a strong predictive capability for both present and future potential habitats. The findings indicated that the likely range of habitats for N. pallida was shaped by factors such as the average temperature of wettest quarter, maximum temperature of warmest month, elevation, rainfall, and precipitation of driest month. The main suitable areas were in the central regions of the geographical departments of Tumbes, Piura, and Lambayeque, as well as in the northern part of La Libertad. It is critical to determine the habitat suitability of plant species for conservation managers since this information stimulates the development of policies that favor sustainable use programs. In addition, these results can contribute significantly to identify new areas for designing strategies for populations conserving and recovering with an ecological restoration approach.
Modeling the potential distribution of Musa (AAB), cv. 'Bellaco' and Carica papaya under climate change scenarios in the provinces of Jaén and San Ignacio
(Elsevier B.V., 2026-06-06) Cubas Sanchez, Jefferson Anthony; Chuquibala Checan, Beimer; Atalaya Marin, Nilton; Tineo Flores, Daniel; Taboada Mitma, Víctor Hugo; Cabrera Hoyos, Héctor Antonio; Cruz Luis, Juancarlos Alejandro; Goñas Goñas, Malluri; Gómez Fernández, Darwin
Plantain (Musa (AAB), cv. 'Bellaco') and papaya (Carica papaya) are key crops for the economy and food security in northwestern Peru; however, the lack of spatially explicit information on their current and future suitability limits agricultural planning and climate change adaptation. This study modeled the current and future potential distribution (2050 and 2070) of both crops in the provinces of Jaén and San Ignacio under the SSP1– 2.6, SSP2– 4.5, and SSP5– 8.5 scenarios, using 262 occurrence records for plantain and 125 for papaya, together with bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors standardized to a spatial resolution of 1 km. MaxEnt models calibrated with 25-fold cross-validation showed excellent performance (current AUC = 0.922–0.928; projected AUC = 0.957–0.965). The main predictors were elevation (58.97%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19, 13.39%), and silt content (7.55%) for plantain, and temperature seasonality (Bio4, 82.06%) for papaya. Projections indicate a marked spatial redistribution for both crops. Although between 78.93% and 85.92% of the territory remained in the same suitability class, plantain showed consistently negative net balances across all scenarios, with losses of up to −1690.87 km² under SSP5– 8.5 in 2070. For papaya, some scenarios showed short-term gains in high-suitability areas (up to 26.50% in 2050), but by 2070 net losses predominated, reaching −34.59% under SSP5– 8.5. These findings reveal crop-specific patterns that are overall unfavorable under climate change and provide a spatial basis for crop zoning, territorial prioritization, and the planning of adaptation measures aimed at site selection, crop diversification, and water management.
Predicting potential distribution and identifying priority areas for conservation of the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) in Peru
(Urban und Fischer Verlag GmbH und Co. KG, 2022-11-14) Guzman, Betty K.; Cotrina Sánchez, Alexander; Allauja Salazar, Elvis E.; Olivera Tarifeño, Christian M.; Ramos Sandoval, Jhonny D.; Hoyos Cerna, Marlon Y.; Barboza Castillo, Elgar; Torres Guzmán, Cristóbal; Oliva Cruz, Manuel
Species distribution models (SDMs) provide conservationist with spatial distributions estimations of priority species. Lagothrix flavicauda (Humboldt, 1812), commonly known as the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey, is one of the largest primates in the New World. This species is endemic to the montane forests of northern Peru, in the departments of Amazonas, San Martín, Huánuco, Junín, La Libertad, and Loreto at elevation from1,000 to 2,800 m. It is classified as “Critically Endangered” (CR) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as well as by Peruvian legislation. Furthermore, it is listed in Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Research on precise estimates of its potential distribution are scare. Therefore, in this study we modeled the potential distribution area of this species in Peru, the model was generated using the MaxEnt algorithm, along with 80 georeferenced occurrence records and 28 environmental variables. The total distribution (high, moderate, and low) for L. flavicauda is 29,383.3 km2, having 3,480.7 km2 as high potential distribution. In effect, 22.64 % (6,648.49 km2) of the total distribution area of L. flavicauda is found within Natural Protected Areas (NPAs), with the following categories representing the largest areas of distribution: Protected Forests (1,620.41 km2), Regional Conservation Areas (1,976.79 km2), and Private Conservation Areas (1,166.55 km2). After comparing the predicted distribution with the current NPAs system, we identified new priority areas for the conservation of the species. We, therefore, believe that this study will contribute significantly to the conservation of L. flavicauda in Peru.