Examinando por Autor "Cubas Sanchez, Jefferson Anthony"

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Modeling the potential distribution of Musa (AAB), cv. 'Bellaco' and Carica papaya under climate change scenarios in the provinces of Jaén and San Ignacio
(Elsevier B.V., 2026-06-06) Cubas Sanchez, Jefferson Anthony; Chuquibala Checan, Beimer; Atalaya Marin, Nilton; Tineo Flores, Daniel; Taboada Mitma, Víctor Hugo; Cabrera Hoyos, Héctor Antonio; Cruz Luis, Juancarlos Alejandro; Goñas Goñas, Malluri; Gómez Fernández, Darwin
Plantain (Musa (AAB), cv. 'Bellaco') and papaya (Carica papaya) are key crops for the economy and food security in northwestern Peru; however, the lack of spatially explicit information on their current and future suitability limits agricultural planning and climate change adaptation. This study modeled the current and future potential distribution (2050 and 2070) of both crops in the provinces of Jaén and San Ignacio under the SSP1– 2.6, SSP2– 4.5, and SSP5– 8.5 scenarios, using 262 occurrence records for plantain and 125 for papaya, together with bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors standardized to a spatial resolution of 1 km. MaxEnt models calibrated with 25-fold cross-validation showed excellent performance (current AUC = 0.922–0.928; projected AUC = 0.957–0.965). The main predictors were elevation (58.97%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19, 13.39%), and silt content (7.55%) for plantain, and temperature seasonality (Bio4, 82.06%) for papaya. Projections indicate a marked spatial redistribution for both crops. Although between 78.93% and 85.92% of the territory remained in the same suitability class, plantain showed consistently negative net balances across all scenarios, with losses of up to −1690.87 km² under SSP5– 8.5 in 2070. For papaya, some scenarios showed short-term gains in high-suitability areas (up to 26.50% in 2050), but by 2070 net losses predominated, reaching −34.59% under SSP5– 8.5. These findings reveal crop-specific patterns that are overall unfavorable under climate change and provide a spatial basis for crop zoning, territorial prioritization, and the planning of adaptation measures aimed at site selection, crop diversification, and water management.
Severity and recovery of post-fire vegetation cover using satellite images and burned area indices in Cajamarca (Peru)
(Springer Nature, 2026-01-15) Cubas Sanchez, Jefferson Anthony; Ocaña Zúñiga, Candy Lisbeth; Gonzáles Pérez, Heinz; Santos Moreno, Almites; Ruiz Ramos, Mario; Barboza, Elgar; Vergara, Alex J.
Background Assessing the severity of forest fires allows us to identify changes that compromise the natural regeneration capacity of vegetation. In this study, we evaluated the severity and recovery of vegetation after a fire using Sentinel-2 satellite images for the Cajamarca department in northeastern Peru. Hot spots were downloaded from the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). This allowed us to identify eight groups with an area >100 hectares, heat intensity >100 Fire Radiative Power (FRP), and the presence of trees. By applying the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the levels of extreme, high, medium, and low severity were determined, as well as the recovery of vegetation before and after the fire events. Results and Conclusions The results indicated that 71.02% of the evaluated territory had low severity, 21.95% had medium severity, 6.41% had high severity, and 0.65% had extreme severity, indicating a prevalence of medium to low severity in the study area. The fires that occurred had similar NDVI levels in the pre-fire stage; however, after the fire, a progressive recovery of vegetation was observed in the study area. This highlights the application of spectral indices to assess the impact and regrowth of vegetation after the development of fires.