Mapping current and future coffee suitability in Peru under climate change: implications for restoration and deforestation-free development

Abstract

Coffee cultivation is central to rural livelihoods and Andean–Amazonian landscapes in Peru; however, it faces increasing pressure from climate change and land-use restrictions. This study aimed to assess the current and future ecological suitability of Coffea arabica at the national scale. A Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling framework was applied, integrating high-resolution bioclimatic, topographic, and edaphic variables. Model performance was robust (mean AUC = 0.858), and variable importance was evaluated using jackknife tests and contribution metrics. Elevation, precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17), soil nitrogen content, and bulk density were identified as the main determinants of habitat suitability. Under current climatic conditions, highly suitable areas cover 42,322.95 km2 (3.3% of Peru), mainly along the eastern Andean slopes. Spatial exclusion scenarios revealed a pronounced funnel effect in effective land availability, with reductions exceeding 80% when forest-cover constraints were applied. Approximately 39.8% of highly suitable areas overlap with degraded lands, highlighting opportunities for productive restoration through agroforestry systems. Future projections under SSP1–2.6 to SSP5–8.5 scenarios indicate consistent contractions of highly suitable areas (–23% to –42%) and an upslope shift toward higher elevations, while unsuitable areas expand by 4%–5% nationally. These findings provide spatially explicit evidence to support climate-smart territorial planning, restoration prioritization, and sustainable coffee development under accelerating climate change.